On-grid Iowa vsOff-grid Waha
Side-by-side economics comparing fixed 6.5¢/kWh on-grid Iowa hosting against variable Waha off-grid gas-powered mining.
Head-to-Head Comparison
Off-grid Waha — Monthly Cost Breakdown
No Power Cost Cap
When Waha trades positive, your power cost increases with no ceiling. At +$1/MMbtu, power cost is ~3.9¢/kWh. You can shut down units if gas becomes uneconomic, but the $15,000/month O&M per unit continues regardless. Hashrate cut, gas split, and fixed O&M costs always apply.
Visual Analysis
Scenario Analysis — Off-grid Waha vs On-grid Iowa
| Scenario | Waha Price | Gas Power Cost | 5-Yr Profit (Waha) | 5-Yr ROI (Waha) | vs Iowa (5-Yr) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull Case Waha −$3/MMbtu | $-3.00/MMbtu | −0.91¢/kWh all-in | $4.54M | +45.4%/yr | +$1.83M |
| Base Case YTD avg −$1.93 | $-1.93/MMbtu | 0.13¢/kWh all-in | $4.16M | +41.6%/yr | +$1.46M |
| Neutral Waha $0/MMbtu | +$0.00/MMbtu | 2.00¢/kWh all-in | $2.95M | +29.5%/yr | +$250,944 |
| Stress Waha +$2/MMbtu | +$2.00/MMbtu | 3.94¢/kWh all-in | $1.70M | +17.0%/yr | −$998,644 |
Risk Factor Comparison
| Risk Factor | Iowa | Waha |
|---|---|---|
| Power Cost Risk | None (fixed 6.5¢) | High (no cap, pure spot) |
| Uptime Risk | Low (98% grid) | Medium (93% avg, no SLA) |
| Counterparty Risk | Existing relationship | New vendor (360 Energy) |
| Contract Lock-in | Flexible | 5-year, costly exit |
| Revenue Share | None | 10-20% of hash |
| Geographic Risk | Iowa (known) | West Texas (remote) |
| Gas Price Exposure | None | 100% spot Waha |
Uptime Impact Analysis
Waha Breakeven Analysis
At current hashprice ($38/PH/d), Off-grid Waha breaks even with Iowa at approximately Waha +$0.40/MMBtu (+2.39¢/kWh).
Above this price, Iowa becomes the better investment.
Understanding Waha Gas
Market EducationWaha is the natural gas pricing hub for the Permian Basin in West Texas. Unlike most gas markets, Waha frequently trades at negative prices — meaning producers pay you to take their gas.
Result: Producers will literally pay you to take their gas problem off their hands. This is structural, not temporary — as long as the Permian remains the most active oil play in the US, Waha will stay depressed.
| Benchmark | What It Is | 2026 YTD Avg | Typical Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub | US national benchmark (Louisiana) | +$2.50/MMBtu | $2–5/MMBtu |
| Waha | Permian Basin (West Texas) | −$1.93/MMBtu | −$5 to +$3/MMBtu |
| Spread | Waha discount to Henry Hub | $4.43/MMBtu | $2–8/MMBtu |
The Waha-Henry Hub spread represents the "trapped gas discount." When pipeline constraints worsen or Permian production surges, spreads widen and Waha gets more negative — improving your economics.
Based on 360 Energy case study data: Waha trades negative ~66% of the time. Distribution is approximate.
| Season | Typical Behavior | Risk Level | Your Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring / Fall | Most negative (low demand, high production) | Low | Best margins — peak profitability |
| Summer | Moderately negative (some cooling demand) | Medium | Good — some demand absorption |
| Winter | Can spike positive during cold snaps | High | Watch closely — grid stress risk |
⚡ January 2026 Winter Storm: Waha spiked to +$14/MMBtu briefly. 360 customers shut down for ~2 days. Gas availability was 99.9% for the year, but those spikes can erase weeks of margin. O&M costs of $15,000/unit/mo continue during shutdowns.
| Hashprice | Waha Breakeven vs Iowa | Current Waha | Margin of Safety | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $30/PH/d | +$1.10/MMBtu | $-2.00/MMBtu | -3.10 MMBtu | Iowa wins now |
| $38/PH/d← current | +$0.40/MMBtu | $-2.00/MMBtu | -2.40 MMBtu | Iowa wins now |
| $50/PH/d | $-0.70/MMBtu | $-2.00/MMBtu | -1.30 MMBtu | Iowa wins now |
| $65/PH/d | $-2.10/MMBtu | $-2.00/MMBtu | +0.10 MMBtu | Tight |
| $80/PH/d | $-4.80/MMBtu | $-2.00/MMBtu | +2.80 MMBtu | Strong cushion |
| $100/PH/d | Outside range | $-2.00/MMBtu | — | — |
Margin of Safety = how far current Waha price ($-2.00) is below the breakeven. Positive = Waha still wins. Negative = Iowa wins at this hashprice.
5-Year Total Return Comparison
| Metric | Iowa | Waha (Base) | Waha (Stress) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Investment | $2.00M | $2.00M | $2.00M |
| 5-Year Gross Profit | $2.70M | $4.16M | $1.70M |
| 5-Year Net Return | $703,024 | $2.16M | −$295,621 |
| Total ROI | +135.2% | +208.0% | +85.2% |
| Payback | 3.7 yr | 2.4 yr | Never |
Winner: Off-grid Waha by $25,009/month ($300,106/yr) at $38/PH/d and Waha $-2.00/MMbtu.
Off-grid Waha requires $159,994 in upfront capex ($2.00M vs $2.00M) for the same $2.00M invested.
Off-grid Waha breakeven vs On-grid Iowa at approximately Waha +$0.40/MMbtu (+2.39¢/kWh).
Faster payback: Off-grid Waha (2.4 yr vs 3.7 yr).
GasboxOn-grid Iowa: 6.5¢/kWh fixed · 98% uptime · $18K/PH ASIC-only capex ($1.2M/MW) | Off-grid Waha: Spot gas (no cap) · 93% uptime · 10-20% hashrate cut · 50% neg gas split · $10K/unit/mo O&M · $1.5-2.2M per 1.25MW unit all-in capex (customer-owned)