Estimate your annual return from current market conditions. Move the sliders; every figure below updates as you go.
You buy mining hardware
Purchase Bitcoin miners (ASIC machines) that run 24/7 solving mathematical problems to secure the Bitcoin network.
Miners earn Bitcoin weekly
Your machines earn Bitcoin rewards based on their computational power. At current rates, expect ~8% annual yield. As hashprice and Bitcoin price rise, your returns increase while your expenses stay fixed, improving your breakeven and accelerating payback.
Dollar-cost average automatically
Instead of buying Bitcoin at today's price, mining spreads your investment over time. You accumulate BTC weekly regardless of price.
Why mining? Mining lets you accumulate Bitcoin at a discount to market prices while benefiting from potential price appreciation. It's a passive, automated DCA strategy.
Annual Return
Upfront Cost
$1.00M
Monthly Cashflow
$17,163
Miners purchased
116
Base Return
20.60%
Cost per PH
Electricity Rate
Power Consumed
0.65 MW
Efficiency
13 J/TH
at BTC price of
Deeper analysis to inform your investment decision
How long until your investment is fully recovered
Annual Recovery
$205,952
Monthly Recovery
$17,163
With BTC Appreciation (50% of 7-yr CAGR)
Flat Price Payback
58 mo
BTC at today's price
Appreciation Payback
21 mo
BTC at ~15.8%/yr (50% of 7-yr CAGR)
Appreciation scenario uses 50% of the 7-year CAGR (~15.8%/yr).
Minimum BTC price to remain profitable
At current hashprice ($41), BTC can drop to $37,017 before you hit breakeven. Below this, you'd need hashprice to rise to stay profitable.
Downside Cushion
38.3% drop to floor
Raw Breakeven Hashprice
$25.29/PH/day
Minimum hashprice to cover costs
Your BTC earnings, denominated in Bitcoin
Daily BTC
₿ 0.024249
Monthly BTC
₿ 0.7275
Annual BTC
₿ 8.7296
Your hashrate is fixed; the network's grows and the subsidy halves in April 2028. Coins per year fall accordingly, and the machines switch off in any year they would mine at a loss. Scenarios show the BTC price path on top.
Halving
April 2028
Lands in Year 2. Coins per PH halve from that date.
| Year | BTC that year | BTC (cum.) | Bear (cum.) | Base (cum.) | Bull (cum.) | Base ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | ₿ 8.7296 | ₿ 8.7296 | $205,952 | $284,613 | $363,274 | 28.46% |
| Year 2halving | ₿ 6.0352 | ₿ 14.7647 | $258,323 | $454,345 | $667,561 | 45.43% |
| Year 3 | ₿ 3.3004 | ₿ 18.0652 | $258,323off | $454,900 | $804,849 | 45.49% |
| Year 4 | ₿ 2.8699 | ₿ 20.9351 | $258,323off | $457,509 | $1,004,116 | 45.75% |
| Year 5 | ₿ 2.4956 | ₿ 23.4307 | $258,323off | $462,187 | $1,274,315 | 46.22% |
| Year 6 | ₿ 2.1701 | ₿ 25.6007 | $258,323off | $468,949 | $1,625,697 | 46.89% |
| Year 7 | ₿ 1.8870 | ₿ 27.4878 | $258,323off | $477,808 | $2,069,993 | 47.78% |
| Total investment | $1,000,000 | |||||
| Base case, 7 years | ₿ 27.4878 · $477,808 · 47.78% | |||||
Hardware assumed to run 7 years. Coins per year = year-1 production ÷ (1 + network growth)^(year − 1), halved from April 2028. Electricity and insurance stay fixed per PH; a year is marked off when revenue would not cover them. Scenarios differ only in BTC price. Fees ignored. Not a guarantee of future performance.
IRS §168(k) 100% Bonus Depreciation, full write-off in year of purchase
| Tax Bracket | Deduction | Tax Saved | Net Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32% bracket | $1,000,000 | $320,000 | $680,000 |
| 35% bracket | $1,000,000 | $350,000 | $650,000 |
| 37% bracket | $1,000,000 | $370,000 | $630,000 |
| 39.6% (proposed top) | $1,000,000 | $396,000 | $604,000 |
Consult a qualified tax advisor. Assumes full business use, active participation, and no passive activity loss limitations.
Annual return and cash-on-cash across different market conditions
| Hashprice | Annual Return | Cash-on-Cash | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|
| $30below floor | $72,453 | 7.25% | 166mo |
| $40CURRENT | $193,816 | 19.38% | 62mo |
| $50 | $315,178 | 31.52% | 38mo |
| $60 | $436,541 | 43.65% | 27mo |
| $70 | $557,903 | 55.79% | 22mo |
| $80 | $679,266 | 67.93% | 18mo |
| $100 | $921,991 | 92.20% | 13mo |
| $125 | $1,225,397 | 122.54% | 10mo |
| $150 | $1,528,803 | 152.88% | 8mo |
| $200 | $2,135,616 | 213.56% | 6mo |
Grayed rows are below breakeven. Current hashprice highlighted. All figures before BTC price appreciation.